Tanzania: Can Tanzania Set Its Sights On China’s Graphite Crown?

Tanzania wants to overtake China in graphite production within 15 years. It is a bold target for a country with substantial reserves but only a small share of global output. The announcement signals its intention to become a major force in the fast-growing battery materials market.

“We are going to surpass China in terms of production,” Minerals Minister Anthony Mavunde told a mining forum in London this month, citing Tanzania’s estimated 6% share of global graphite reserves. However, there is a vast difference between that ambition and the current state of output. Tanzania must decide whether it can build a competitive industry or will remain a supplier of raw material processed elsewhere.

Graphite is a key component in lithium-ion batteries used in electric vehicles and energy storage systems. A global drive for electrification will push demand for critical minerals like graphite even higher. Extraction will have to increase regardless though another problem lies in the supply chains. Processing capacity is heavily concentrated in China, with American and European manufacturers now looking for different sources of processed graphite.

Tanzania has a credible starting point. The US Geological Survey estimates that it produced 75,000 tonnes of natural graphite in 2025, more than twice its estimated 2024 output. While the rate of growth is relentless China, produced about 1.4 million tonnes that year. Closing the gap would require Tanzania to expand far faster than its established competitor.

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Growth will require investment, which is beginning to follow. In August, Tanzania signed a $100 million agreement with Chinese state-owned Henan Yudi Mining Company to develop a graphite project in Morogoro. Tanzania will hold a 17% stake in the venture, which is targeting annual production of 50,000 tonnes.

Another project in the works is the Australian-backed Lindi Jumbo project, designed to produce 40,000 tonnes a year over an estimated 24-year mine life. Projects like these show growing commercial interest, although planned capacity can take years to become actual output.

The bigger challenge for Tanzania lies beyond extraction.

China’s advantage comes from both the volume it mines and its control of the technology that turns graphite into battery-grade material. The IEA estimates that China handles more than 90% of battery-grade graphite refining. Countries with abundant deposits can therefore remain dependent on Chinese facilities for higher-value production.

That dependence presents Tanzania with a difficult choice. Chinese investment can speed up mine development and bring capital and expertise. Yet it may do little to establish an independent domestic processing industry. If Tanzania cannot add value at home, much of the industry’s economic benefit will continue to flow overseas.

Mavunde recognised the problem and says the government wants minerals to be processed domestically.

Meeting that goal will require reliable electricity and major upgrades to industrial and transport infrastructure. Tanzania is already well on its way as the completion of the the Julius Nyerere Hydro Power Plant nearly doubled Tanzania’s energy generation capacity to 4646MW. The near completed USD $42 billion-dollar LNG project led by Shell and Equinor will double Tanzania’s capacity again to 8000MW. This exponential increase in energy generation will allow for competitive processing. Any processing plants will also have to meet the exacting purity standards set by international battery manufacturers.

Geopolitics creates an opening. The United States and Europe are trying to reduce their dependence on Chinese battery materials. In July 2025, the US announced a preliminary anti-dumping duty of 93.5% on certain Chinese graphite anode materials, showing how closely critical minerals are now tied to trade policy.

Tanzania could benefit from this push to diversify supply. In August, Australian developer EcoGraf secured a preliminary long-term offtake arrangement with a German graphite trader for its planned Epanko project. The deal points to potential European demand for Tanzanian graphite.

Being an alternative to China will not be enough. International buyers will expect competitive prices and reliable delivery at a consistent quality. Tanzania must meet those demands while avoiding excessive reliance on any one market.

The opportunity also extends beyond Tanzania’s borders. Processing minerals from neighbouring countries could help the country become a regional manufacturing and export hub.

Overtaking China within 15 years remains unlikely but Tanzania does not need to become the world’s largest graphite producer to succeed. A more realistic goal is to build a competitive industry that keeps more processing and revenue at home.

Success will ultimately be measured by how much value Tanzania can create from its graphite before it leaves the country.

The author is a Global Communications Strategist and former Business and Technology Editor

Disclaimer: The views expressed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Capital FM.